现实生活天使投资回报2012-2016

自2012年以来,我一直在做天使投资。从那时起,我已经投入了超过150多个初创公司。其中50岁以上是直接投资,我的名字在帽表上,100+是通过SPV(专用车辆)和人群资助平台,如鞍师,资助公司和微孔等。当我第一次开始时,没有关于天使投资的回报的公共数据。8年后,仍然没有关于天使投资回报的很多公共数据。由于该投资的前10%的前10%确定了天使组合的表现,因此机会变得更大。因此,返回的方差非常高。

毕竟这些年来,如果你有钱和时间,我相信天使投资是值得追求的。当您投资启动时,这笔钱直接进入经济建立业务,创造就业机会,实际上为经济涓涓细流贡献。相反,投资公开市场只是从其他投资者购买股票。这笔钱不会直接进入经济。此外,我认为天使投资者可以通过多样化获得比公共市场更好的回报。我们稍后会到达那个,但让我开始分享我的真实天使投资回报。

方法论

为了回报计算,我在2012-2016之间提供的投资,为公司提供足够的时间。它通常需要一个至少5年的公司,从成立到真正的雪球并爆发。我在2012-2016期间投入的每家公司现在至少为5岁。

我只是在包括我通过SPV或众筹平台直接投入或投入至少20美元的公司。我不包括大量的小投资(平均<5000美元),因为它们主要通过昂堡斯主义融合来源投资。我打算写一篇关于我的辛迪加和基金投资的帖子。这里列出的所有投资是我花费至少两个小时的投资。

Want to read this story later?将其保存在日记。

The following is the complete list of 39 companies (according to the criteria mentioned above) I invested during 2012–2016 and their current multiples. I am publishing the list here for transparency and accountability. I also want to demonstrate that people don’t have to invest in Uber or Coinbase to get good enough returns. I am lumping companies into groups if they haven’t achieve at least 5X markup. I just don’t feel it’s the right thing to do to point out in public that a company lost or is likely to lose 100% of my investment. Loss is part of the game. For companies that have been around for a long time but are not in a good trajectory to succeed (or failure), I marked them down to 10% of my investment amount. Chances are they are probably worth more than that from the revenue or EBITA perspective. But I am being super conservative for this study. I am assuming the same amount is invested for each company. In reality, it varies a bit but the overall return remains the same.

Breakout Companies

9 out of the 39 investments could be considered breakouts. Almost all of them generate $10M+ annual run rate. KiwiCo and Reddit generate more than $100M annual revenue already. Iterable and MatterPort are probably reaching $100M in the next couple of years. I didn’t have any insider information here. I looked up these revenue numbers through clever googling. Their aggregate multiple is 12.5 based on the valuation from the most recent financing round but they are all still growing like weeds with good unit economics so the more realistic multiple of 26.3 is probably still an underestimate.

我的突破投资

其他公司

剩下的30家公司中有14家仍然活跃。基于非常激进的爆炸性的总汇总为1.49。公司是:

WonderSchool(Soldsie), BackTotheRoots, Volta, PicCollage, Postmates, FundersClub, Indinero, Hapara,Women.com,bountyhunter,boxc,change.org.,微调,Onera商业

30家公司中有16个。聚合多个是0.61实现。公司是:

Moxxly, meetup, Balanced, pic6 Studios, Flurry, Evertoon, MightySignal, Blue Bottle Coffee, LoveWithFood, LaunchTrack, Beepi, SlidePay, Freshplum, Shopgenius, Bento, Munchery

如果您希望在电子表格中看到数字,请访问此google sheetfor more number crunching.

投资回报

It’s a bit hard to give one number for the returns as if they are factual. The reality is these investments are illiquid and it’s hard to pinpoint the exact outcome. But here are some estimates:

Using the保守倍数of the breakout companies, the overall return multiple will be (12.5*9 + 1.49*14 + 0.61*16)/39 =~3.67

Using the现实倍数在突破性公司中,整体回报倍数将是(26.33 * 9 + 1.49 * 14 + 0.61 * 16)/ 39 =〜6.86

我们不知道最终回归的地方将在哪里降落,但我将亲自满意3x回报并根据估计值,这很可能返回实际上远高于那个。

An interesting exercise will be to compare this return to public market returns. In particular, to compare this return to间谍QQQ。为此,我决定根据1月1日,{投资年份}到2019年12月31日的返回计算公共市场多个。基本思想是,如果我要在间谍或QQQ而不是公司投资金钱X at the time, what’s my expected investment multiple from SPY or QQQ? For example, the investment multiple of SPY and QQQ from 2012 would be 3.01 and 4.15 respectively and the investment multiple of SPY and QQQ from 2016 would be 1.71 and 1.91 respectively. Using this, the blended multiple of间谍QQQ根据我的投资时间,分别为2.29和3.04。在任何措施中,我的天使投资仍然更好。再次,如果您有兴趣修复数字,请访问the spreadsheet.

外带

我认为自己是一个漂亮的天使投资者。我不保留一个高调,所以我的交易流量可能不是惊人的。我没有投资超级热门公司,如优步或斗鸡。当我第一次离开Facebook时,我也很天真,真的不知道跑步或销售或营销。我是一名工程师,所以我知道基础设施,机器学习和完整的堆栈工程。但这就是我离开Facebook的全部知识。从那以后我已经走了很长的路。尽管所有这些,我仍然有些惊讶,我仍然会产生可接受的回报。

If you look through the breakout list, they are also pretty well distributed. It’s not like I only invested in breakout companies in a short timeframe. Every single year between 2012–2016 I invested at least one breakout. From the second half of 2015, I did slow down my angel investment pace due to a new child and a new job I took in late 2016. I picked up the pace again in 2020 and I have made 16 direct investments this year. I am pretty sure that at least one of them will become a breakout. But I will report back in 2025.

So why did it work? I am not going to pretend I knew Justin Zhu was going to be a startup superstar when he was pitching me about the idea of Iterable. I only chatted with him for an hour before deciding to invest. I also had no clue that KiwiCo could become so ubiquitous and my kids love them. When I invested in HealthSherpa, they were called rent.io and they needed to pivot the company to make it work. My point is I don’t think I have amazing judgment or anything. In general, I attribute the good returns to diversification and proximity to good startup founders. Diversification is achievable by investing in 10+ companies a year. Proximity to good startup founders is easier to get these days since everyone is making investment decisions through zoom. My definition of good startup founders is also pretty straightforward. I like founders who can clearly communicate, whose progress to invested capital ratio is high(aka scrappiness), who know what they are doing and who are super vigilant about their spending. I shy away from founders who don’t seem to be sober and who seek attention and external validation too much. I can confidently say all the founders I directly invested made earnest effort to make their company work regardless of the outcome.

这也是worth noting that 6 out of the 9 breakout companies I invested have female, immigrant or diverse founders vs 21 out of 39 all investments. It’s well记录FID创始人擅长非FID创始人。但我可以告诉你,今天系统性偏见仍然非常强烈,我认为我认为进入FID创始人作为优势。

建议书

我会推荐天使作为投资组合策略的一部分吗?如果您可以投入使用大量投资的时间和资金,并且不需要流动性,我强烈推荐它。除了产生良好的回报和直接投资经济之外,看到勤奋的企业家从划痕中建立令人惊叹的公司的满意是无与伦比的。

自2020年以来,我列出了所有直接投资brightercapital.com如果您是一个寻找投资或想要交换笔记的投资者的创始人,请联系!

更新:现实生活天使投资回报2012-2016:人群融资版is up. Similar methodology and analysis.

Update 3/24/2021:TARSPORT和VOLTA宣布他们的SPAC IPO今年早些时候。马特波特的出口倍数是〜37.5和Volta的多个是〜12基于10美元的IPO价格。这将导致10家突破性公司和4.72倍的保守估计和7.91倍用于现实估算。

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